Elections

Democrats Continue To Gain In Races Against House Republicans

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Phillip Stucky Political Reporter
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The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics updated its Crystal Ball rankings of key House races in favor of Democrats Thursday, giving them a slight edge going into the final stretch of the election season.

Five races that were formerly classified as “leans Republican” were changed to “toss-up,” based on polling information and other factors.

Republican Reps. Barbara Comstock, Steve Knight, Bruce Poliquin, Darrell Issa, and Jeff Denham are all polling relatively close to their Democratic challengers.

Comstock trails Luann Bennett 46 percent to 42 percent. Comstock led Bennet by 4 percent in the final week of September. Issa trailed relatively unknown Democrat Doug Applegate by four points in a Democratic internal poll two weeks ago.

Two Republican races that were classified as “safe Republican” were downgraded to “likely Republican,” which means that although the race is likely to go to the Republican, the race is less sure than it was last week.

Republicans found some good news in the analysis though: Reps. John Katko and Lee Zeldin saw their leads solidify, each earning a “likely Republican” designation from a “toss-up.”

Although Democrats are doing better in House races, they have to pick up 30 seats in order to gain the majority in the lesser chamber. Sixteen Republican-held seats are classified as “toss-ups,” and seven Republicans are running for re-election in “leans Democratic” or “safe Democratic” races.

That means that 23 Republican seats are potentially within easy reach of Democrats by November, leaving Democrats to find seven seats in safe Democratic races in order to have a hope of the majority.

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