Editor’s note: We endeavor to bring you the top voices on current events representing a range of perspectives. Below is a column arguing that reopenings from the coronavirus lockdowns should proceed with caution to prevent any further spikes in cases. You can find a counterpoint here, where Marc Joffe and Geoffrey Lawrence of the Reason Foundation argue that the nation proceed with a full reopening of the economy.
We Americans are pragmatic, get-it-done-now people. This can-do spirit has served us well throughout our history. While we’re not all Libertarians, we often resist, challenge or express skepticism about authority that impedes individual fulfillment. We have state license plates, after all, that boast “Live Free or Die” and “Don’t Tread on Me.”
As we gradually emerge from the nationwide coronavirus lockdowns, there’s an understandable, pent-up desire to return to life as we knew it pre-lockdown: dine out, hit the gym, walk in the park, ride the subway, drop the face masks. Barbra Streisand had it right decades ago: we’re people who need people.
At the same time, we should not abandon our fundamental pragmatism because we’re impatient to restore our pre-pandemic life. Our heads and our hearts must be in sync on this one. We faced an abrupt shutdown of the world’s largest economy in only a few weeks, and the economic devastation, here and around the world (and especially in emerging market economies), has been enormous.
One day everything was a green light; the next day almost everything seemed red. Returning to normal life, however, entails more than simply flipping on that green light. We must resist the temptation to believe that our country and our economy have only two speeds, on and off.
Like stoplights, there’s a yellow, cautionary light in the middle. That cautionary light is flashing today for several reasons.
We’re still learning about the physiological impact of COVID-19. This virus is not merely an unusual variation of the annual respiratory flu: it impacts different people in different ways. The Centers for Disease Control and other public and private-sector experts are finding differences in infection and mortality rates, as well as symptom severity depending on people’s ages, pre-existing conditions, location and other factors.
While COVID-19 can attack the lungs, we’re also learning that other symptoms involve sudden inflammation that affects vital organs such as the heart, kidneys, and brain. The World Health Organization recently confused matters even further by issuing conflicting information on whether asymptomatic virus carriers could infect others.
The fundamental pattern and trajectory of this disease’s transmission still remain uncharted as new details and medical histories continue to emerge. Former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld would call these possibilities the “unknown unknowns.”
To chart the communitywide penetration of COVID-19 and further elucidate facts about how this virus invades communities, we need more testing. We’re not there yet. Early on, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was correct when she stressed “testing, testing, testing.” Widespread testing can help save individual lives, prevent further infections, and provide critical information about where the country is in achieving so-called herd immunity, an infection level signifying an important reduction in new infections.
We know little about what COVID-19 “immunity” means. If blood testing reveals virus antibodies, how long will that immunity last? How strong is that immunity? If COVID-19 mutates rapidly like some other viruses, will initial immunity protect against future COVID-19 mutations?
As we seek to achieve a level of national herd immunity, we should guard against a herd mentality that favors opening up too rapidly. Starting with Memorial Day and running through the recent police-brutality protests (peaceful and otherwise), we’ve seen an emerging herd mentality that is troubling.
This week, for example, we learned that COVID-19 infections were, again, rising in at least 20 states and Puerto Rico. President Trump wants to resume his political-campaign rallies that thousands of closely-packed supporters, and former Vice President Biden surely prefers campaigning publicly rather than from his Delaware basement.
We should continue reopening our economy and our society. In doing so, we should pay close attention to emerging patterns as well as what our infectious disease experts tell us as they continue to learn more about COVID-19. A successful reopening will entail balancing what we know with what we desire. Traditional American pragmatism suggests caution, especially in the wake of so many uncertainties.
Reopening our country has to be a team effort. In this respect, I’m reminded of a family member who attended Air Force flight-school training in the 1950s where he was repeatedlyreminded, “Don’t think, you’ll weaken the team.” There are clearly moments in life when this advice applies: on the battlefield or flying a jet, for example, where quick reaction times are critical.
Defeating COVID-19 is not such a moment. Today’s nationwide team effort requires a thoughtful balancing of facts and options. Impulsive mavericks will endanger themselves and others.
Charles Kolb served as Deputy Assistant to the President for Domestic Policy from 1990-1992 in the George H. W. Bush White House